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POLITICS ... with Mungo MacCallum

At the weekend Tony Abbott finally faced reality; he sent a message after the departing independents saying he had decided to submit his costings to Treasury after all and Treasury could tell the independents about them, as long as the independents didn't tell Julia Gillard or Wayne Swan.

Abbott has tried to portray this as a win for himself, but in fact it was an inevitable back down given the circumstances. Andrew Robb had already been caught out; he had claimed that the Federal Police investigation of the leak was already well under way and a result could be expected any day now. The police replied that there was no investigation; they were still considering whether to open one. A continued refusal could only be seen as proving that they had something to hide. But more importantly opinion was turning against the opposition.
The suspicion was that they were actually trying to set the scene for another election, preferably one which would run early next year, when the hated New South Wales Labor government would also be facing the people. This, it was believed, would make Abbott Prime Minister in his own right.
It might; but the downside is that the voters would be outraged at being forced back to the polls. They have been through all that, they have delivered their verdict – well, sort of – and it is up to the politicians to make it work. The umpire’s decision must be respected and those who try to ignore it will pay. It is a risk Abbott is not prepared to take, especially when his friends in the media are ramping up the pressure on the independents to give him the guernsey.
Last week the News Limited group produced a series of surveys designed to prove that the voters in all three electorates actually want a coalition government. Actually they don’t; they want their local member to remain independent, which was why they voted for him. And there is no reason why the independents should not follow this course; they could simply agree not to support no confidence motions and to guarantee supply, and the government could continue as usual.
But, following the protocol outlined below, that would leave Labor in power, an outcome utterly unacceptable to the Murdoch press. And in any case it would be naïve to expect the three independents to pass up the once in a lifetime opportunity for power and glory the hung parliament presents; so the horse trading continues. No sane person wants another election. But perhaps one insane person does.
The preposterous Steve Fielding, the accidental senator from Family First, will, like the rest of the old senate, retain his seat until July 1 next year. Asked whether he would allow a minority Labor government to pursue its agenda, he temporised; indeed, he would not even rule out blocking supply. Actually supply for the year has already been passed in the budget session, so Fielding’s threat was as ignorant as it was arrogant.
But it was something the Governor-General should bear in mind if she was looking for stability, Fielding warned: he was not convinced that the Labor government deserved a second chance.
That’s right, he, him, the man who received just 0.08 per cent of the Victorian first preference vote – just four fifths of one hundredth of one state in 2004, about three fifths of five eighths of fuck all in today’s money – considers that he has the right to decide who should govern Australia in 2010.
And conservative commentators are accusing the Independents of having ideas above their station. Give us a break. In fact the Governor-General is unlikely to come into it at all, except to rubber stamp whatever happens in parliament. Some of the sillier commentators have got all excited about how the G-G, Quentin Bryce, is the mother in law of Labor minister Bill Shorten, and this could put her in a conflict of interest when it came to choosing who would be prime minister. But it is not her choice. Julia Gillard remains Prime Minister, albeit in a caretaker role, until the poll is declared.
When it is., Bryce is bound by convention to ask her if she can form a government; if she says yes, she will be commissioned. If she says no, or if she subsequently loses a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives, Bryce will offer the job to Tony Abbott. If both leaders fail, she will have to prorogue parliament and call an election. It is all quite straightforward, not at all like the deadlock between the Reps and the Senate in 1975. And it is undeniably intriguing; like a good murder mystery - and unlike the awful election campaign that led up to it -- it makes you pay attention right up to the last page.
Suddenly politics is interesting and even relevant; the punters genuinely want to know what is going on, how many options there are, what are the rules of the game and who is up who for the rent.
Last Friday the Sydney Morning Herald produced a four page wrap around attempting to explain it; the public has learned more about politics in the last week of August than they ever did in 12 years of high school. Whether the interest can be maintained is of course another question; technically the impasse could drag on until the end of November, when parliament would be forced to sit and make a decision. But no-one expects to go on for that long. And as the players reassembled back in Canberra on the last day of winter, it was clear that the climax was approaching.
And it’s still impossible to predict: the odds have to favour the conservatives, but the three amigos – Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Bob Katter – are all contrarian types; that’s why they are independents.
Andrew Wilkie is a professional maverick and even Tony Crook and Adam Bandt could yet surprise us.
Please remain seated and keep your seat belt securely fastened until the election has come to a complete halt.